“Circumstantial evidence is evidence of a fact, or a chain of facts or circumstances, that, by indirection or inference, carries conviction to the mind and logically or reasonably establishes the fact to be proved. Circumstantial evidence may sustain criminal convictions, but the circumstantial proof must facilitate reasonable inferences of causation, not mere speculation.” People v Wang, 505 Mich 239, 251 (2020) (quotation marks, alteration, and citation omitted). See also M Crim JI 4.3; M Civ JI 3.10.